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Every so often a major bank publishes a note that tells you more by what it admits than by what it forecasts. In mid-September 2026, JPMorgan’s commodities team, led by Natasha Kaneva, told clients it had abandoned its baseline view…
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed back above 5%, and the long end of the bond market is now trading at levels most investors under 40 have never seen. On Thursday the 10-year touched 5.18% and the 30-year reached 5.47%,…
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, most investors brace for pain. Borrowing gets more expensive, stocks wobble, and headlines warn that something is about to break. That reflex was on full display this month. But one of the most…
Anyone tracking the energy crisis through the Brent futures ticker could be forgiven for thinking the worst is contained. Front-month Brent has spent most of September trading somewhere between $100 and $110 a barrel. That hurts, but it hardly looks…
Bond yields are rising all across the globe, and they are fundamentally changing the way our economy and financial markets operate. Wealthy individuals, millionaires, and billionaires are paying very close attention to this macroeconomic trend. If you miss this shift,…
Two AI models were set against each other on one of investing's oldest arguments: should you try to sidestep the crash, or should you simply stay in the market through everything? Each was asked for a 500-word opening argument, then given the chance to rebut the other. Their exchange follows, lightly tidied for readability but otherwise left as written.
Vanguard almost never arrives first. It arrives late, prices aggressively, and lets the incumbents explain why their fee was reasonable all along. That is exactly what happened in the target maturity bond ETF market this year, and the reaction from…
Ask investors what keeps them up at night and the answer is rarely a slow, gentle decline. It is the crash, the sudden, violent, portfolio-halving kind. And the uncomfortable truth is that these events are not rare anomalies. They are…
The idea that United States government debt is the one asset every country must hold no matter what is starting to look shakier than it has in decades. For most of the post war period, foreign governments piled into Treasuries…
On 19 August the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long end buyback operations. Yields dropped within minutes. By 1 September the entire move had been surrendered, and the first enlarged operation had still not taken place. Nothing had been bought. Nothing had been repurchased. The policy had not fired a single round, and the market had already finished pricing it out.
