Category Defensive Investing

The fourth and most catastrophic scenario is Iran directly striking Arab Gulf oil infrastructure: producing fields, processing nodes, and export terminals in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain. This is where the numbers become almost difficult to conceptualise. The September 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi Aramco's facilities briefly knocked out 5 million barrels per day before rapid repairs restored most output within two weeks.

Many investors enter the markets expecting a straight line of success: buy some stocks, watch them rise, and reap the rewards. But beneath the surface of success stories lies a much less comfortable truth: losing is often a necessary psychological phase on the path to winning. In this article we'll explore why loss matters, how it shapes behaviour, and how an investor who embraces defeat can become stronger and more resilient.

What began as Japan's unique economic stagnation in the 1990s has quietly metastasized into a global phenomenon that threatens the fundamental assumptions underlying modern capitalism and investment strategies. The "low-desire society"—where entire generations stop pursuing traditional economic goals like homeownership, career advancement, and consumption—is no longer confined to Japan's borders. From Silicon Valley to Seoul, from London to Sydney, young adults are collectively walking away from the economic game, creating unprecedented challenges for investors, policymakers, and anyone trying to understand where global markets are heading.

Dollar-cost averaging has become gospel in personal finance circles. Investment advisors recommend it. Financial blogs preach it. Your cautious uncle swears by it. The strategy sounds logical: instead of investing a lump sum all at once, you spread your investment over several months or years, buying at regular intervals regardless of market conditions. This supposedly reduces risk and smooths out market volatility. But here's the uncomfortable truth that many financial professionals won't tell you: if you have money to invest today, dollar-cost averaging is mathematically inferior to investing it all at once.

The personal finance industry has achieved something remarkable: it has convinced an entire generation that investing is boring, that stock picking is futile, and that the only rational approach is to mindlessly shovel money into broad market index funds. This orthodoxy, while well-intentioned, has created one of the most dangerous bubbles in modern financial history—not in any particular asset, but in the very mechanism of price discovery itself.

Look, I'm going to tell you something the financial industry doesn't want you to hear: most retirement advice is complete bollocks. All this talk about "purposeful asset allocation" and "diversification" is missing the massive economic elephant in the room - the game is rigged, and it's getting worse.

In times of economic uncertainty, investors traditionally turn to U.S. Treasuries as a protective measure for their portfolios. Historically, these government-backed securities have provided solace when other investments falter. However, with shifting market dynamics and changing monetary policies, many are questioning whether Treasuries still retain their safe-haven appeal. Below, we explore the evolving role of U.S. Treasuries during recessionary periods, the key factors influencing their performance, and what investors should consider when allocating assets in today’s climate.